- The United States and Israel carried a barrage of missiles strikes on Iran which killed the country’s Supreme Leader, Defence minister, Army Chief of Staff and IRGC Top Commander. The attack triggered massive retaliation which lead to strikes on US military bases in the Persian Gulf; and suspension of traffic on the Hormuz Strait. 20% of oil exports are now in jeopardy.
Why it matters ? This development will likely trigger a surge in freight rates, crude oil forward prices leading to global inflation and a disruption in the global supply chains.
Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway now owns a staggering 5.6% of the entire U.S. Treasury Bill Market. Berkshire currently holds about 400 billion in cash or equivalents. This portfolio reallocation signals the retired famed investor’s expectation of an overdue stock market Krach.
- US margin debt surged by over 53 billion in January, to a record $1.28 trillion. This marks the 9th consecutive monthly increase. YoY, margin debt jumped +$342 billion, or +36%, the biggest increase since the 2021. Market-cap adjusted margin debt has also hit an all-time high.
Key Takeaways: Investors are using more leverage than ever and leverage generates higher volatility.
- China’s gold reserves surged 15.7% MoM (Month on month) in January, to record $369.6 billion. In January, its reserves jumped to $369.6 billion, the highest in history. Total holdings now sit near 2,308 tons of gold. That’s 15 straight months of buying by the People’s Bank of China. Since late 2022, China has added over $260B in gold to its balance sheet. Gold reserves now represent about half of China’s U.S treasury holdings.
So what? Gold accumulation indicates fear of inflation triggered by quantitative easing and dwindling trust on the value of the dollar.
U.S. M2 Money Supply jumps to a new all-time high of $22.45 Trillion stoking fears of a possible greenback debasement.
- January United States’ PPI inflation came in at 2.9%, above expectations of 2.6%. Core PPI inflation unexpectedly rose to 3.6%, above expectations of 3.0%.Core PPI inflation is now at its highest level since July 2025. PPI inflation is running hotter than expected. The release led to yields sliding as expectations of three Fed cuts subsided.
What this matters? The Persian Gulf conflict might give the Fed a hard time reading the print, as prospects of higher inflation collide with fears of an oil shock-related recession.
À propos de l'auteur
